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Russell 3000

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Stock Strategy

Ultimate Optimizer + Unified Reversal Hybrid (Full R3000 · Updated 2026-03-17)
Stocks: Ultimate optimizer params (Sharpe 1.49, CAGR 41%), adaptive trail/skip/nstocks, PEAD+Reddit signals, OE-weighted. Reversal: 95% reversal (options flow P/C spike + 7-signal technical + earnings + volume) + 5% momentum (Sharpe 3.15). Crypto: Optimized momentum (SMA300 regime, 3 coins, 90d lookback, Sharpe 1.51). Commodities: Risk-adjusted trend-following across 12 ETFs (Sharpe 0.94).

Stocks Sharpe: 1.49

Stocks CAGR: +41.1%

Stocks MaxDD: -38.1%

Skip 3 + OE alloc

Updated: 2026-03-16

Crypto: Composite (50% vol + 50% momentum), 130 coins, top 4, 2% trail · Sharpe 1.72, 234%/yr, DD -28%

Top Picks (Skip 3, OE-Weighted)

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Paper Trade Summary

📅 Data Freshness

📊 Chart Pattern Signals

🚀 Momentum Rankings

Top 20 — 207d Momentum (%)

Top Momentum (Skip Top 3, OE-Weighted Allocation)

Watchlist (Ranks 9-16)

Full Rankings (Top 50)

#	Ticker	Price	Mom 207d	Mom 126d	Mom 63d	Exp 42d	Win Rate	Decile	Alpha Score

📊 Alpha Scores (Legacy Multi-Factor) ▸ Paper tracking — not used for picks

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⛏️ Metals & Minerals — Risk-Off Rotation

₿ Crypto Token Rankings

Top 30 — Composite Ranked

#	Token	Price	Alpha Score	Technical	Momentum	Funding	OI Z	Stress	24h	7d	Shadow
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⛏️ Metals & Minerals — Risk-Off Rotation

ETF Universe & Rankings

Trade History

Strategy Overview

Purpose: Deploy capital into trending metals/minerals ETFs during stock Risk-Off regime instead of sitting in cash.

Universe: GLD (Gold), SLV (Silver), GDX (Gold Miners), REMX (Rare Earth), URA (Uranium), COPX (Copper)

Rules: Rank by raw return over per-asset optimal lookback. Hold top 3 that are trending (price > SMA200, momentum > 0). If fewer than 2 are trending, go to cash. Rebalance every 14 days.

Backtest: Integrated stock momentum + metals rotation = +1,299% vs cash-only Risk-Off +1,208%. Metals add ~+91% over only 9% Risk-Off days. Biggest edge in 2025: +6.7% vs -2.9% (9.6% swing).

Thesis: AI chip demand → rare earth/copper/uranium rising. Gold/silver as traditional safe haven. Near-zero SPY correlation (0.04–0.45).

Market Regime (Rule-Based — Production)

Ground Truth v5 — R3000, 963 tickers, 482K samples, 111 Features Tested Spearman rank correlation with 42d forward returns

Feature	7d Corr	21d Corr	42d Corr	t-stat	Verdict

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Time	Side	Ticker	Qty	Value	Status	Reason

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ID	Status	Pri	Sleeve	Tickers	Thesis	Entry	P&L	Max ↑	Max ↓	Hold	Review

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Ticker ⇅	Source ⇅	Date ⇅	Hold Until ⇅	Entry $ ⇅	Current $ ⇅	7d ⇅	21d ⇅	42d ⇅	Status ⇅

📊 Strategy Comparison — All Systems (2016-2026, $100K start) Log scale • Weekly data points

Strategy Backtest — Full R3000 Universe (~998 stocks, 5yr validated)Updated 2026-03-09

Strategy	Sharpe	Annual	Max DD	OOS	WF	Notes
📈 STOCKS — Adaptive Momentum (macro-linked), Skip #1, Equal Wt, 2R (SMA240+VIX65)
✅ PRODUCTION (stocks)	4.91	+513%	-12.1%	5.70	6/6	Validated — OOS improved
SPY Buy & Hold	—	+18.4%	—	—	—	Alpha: +494%/yr over SPY
🛡️ TRAILING STOP — 5% Per-Stock (Cash on Stop)
5% trail (production)	3.90	—	-8.9%	4.15	6/6	Replaces regime cash — trail IS the hedge
No trail baseline	2.18	—	-27.3%	—	—	Trail adds +1.72 Sharpe
🪙 CRYPTO — Composite (4 coins, 30d vol+mom, 2% trail, SMA200 3R)
✅ PRODUCTION (crypto)	1.72	+234%	-28%	+23%	3/4	128 coins, 5yr, 25K configs
BTC Buy & Hold	—	+11%	—	—	—	Alpha: +221%/yr over BTC
✅ PRODUCTION (Ultimate Optimizer)	1.49	+41.1%	-38.1%	—	—	Ultimate optimizer params + PEAD + Reddit (validated 2026-03-17)
⚡ UNIFIED HYBRID	3.15	+35.0%	-2.0%	228	51.3%	95% reversal + 5% momentum (options flow + 7-signal)
100/0 stocks only	4.91	+513%	-12.1%	—	—	Higher return but worse Sharpe + DD

Production Strategy Summary

Key Research Findings

Production Momentum (Sharpe 1.49): Ultimate optimizer params, PEAD (w=0.32) + Reddit sentiment (w=0.70), OE power 1.02, pool 35, SMA 135, rebal 5d. 242 autoresearch experiments validated.
Unified Reversal Hybrid (Sharpe 3.15): 95% reversal + 5% momentum. Options flow P/C spike (2.0×) + 7-signal technical + earnings + volume exhaustion. 25-day high lookback, 10 stocks, regime SMA 150. MaxDD just -2.0%.
Short-Term Indicators: 21 technical indicators (elder, MACD, CMF, PPO, Keltner, BB, etc.) optimized by Optuna + 88-experiment autoresearch. Sharpe 0.74, CAGR 42.5%.
Crypto (Sharpe 1.51): SMA300 regime (bear <1.00, bull >1.05), 3 coins, 90d momentum, 20% vol weight, 2% trail. 100-experiment autoresearch.
Commodities (Sharpe 0.94): 12 ETFs (precious metals, energy, base metals, agri, miners). Risk-adjusted momentum, always invested, DXY overlay, VIX sizing. SPY correlation 0.34.
What doesn't work: ML stock selection (IC 0.025), LLM price prediction (49.7% — coin flip), regime prediction via ML/LLM (oracle test +0.000), parameter transfer between timeframes
Total configs tested: ~130K momentum + 107K regime + 32K crypto + 650+ autoresearch experiments + 31 unified grid search

Historical: Stock Momentum ($100K start)R3000 ~998 stocks · Adaptive LB (140+15×FFR) · Skip #1 · Equal Wt · Adaptive Trail · 2R (SMA240+VIX65)

Key Market Events: 🏷️ Feb 2020: COVID crash (-34% SPY) · 💉 Nov 2020: Vaccine rally · 🎮 Jan 2021: GME/meme stock mania · 📈 Nov 2021: Market peak · 🦅 Mar 2022: Fed rate hikes begin · 📉 Jun 2022: Bear market (-25%) · 🏦 Mar 2023: SVB/bank crisis · 🤖 May 2023: AI rally begins · 📊 Oct 2023: "Higher for longer" bottom · 🚀 Nov 2024: Post-election rally · ⚠️ Mar 2025: Tariff fears/correction

Historical: Crypto Composite Strategy ($100K start)130-coin universe · Composite ranking (50% low-vol + 50% mom, 30d) · Top 4 · 2% trail · SMA200 3R (bear <0.98, bull >1.095) · Sharpe 1.72

Key Crypto Events: 🔥 Mar 2020: COVID crash (BTC -50%) · 🐂 Oct 2020: Institutional buying begins · 🪙 Apr 2021: Coinbase IPO, BTC $64K · 🇨🇳 May 2021: China mining ban · 🏔️ Nov 2021: BTC ATH $69K · 🌑 May 2022: LUNA/UST collapse · 💀 Nov 2022: FTX bankruptcy (BTC $16K) · 📄 Jan 2024: Spot BTC ETF approved · ✂️ Apr 2024: Bitcoin halving · 🏛️ Nov 2024: Pro-crypto election, BTC $100K · ⚠️ Mar 2025: Tariff uncertainty, risk-off

10-Year Forward ProjectionBased on 80/20 combined backtest (~485%/yr IS, expect significant reversion). Conservative = 25%/yr, Base = 50%/yr, Optimistic = 100%/yr.

📊 Live Paper Trading — All SystemsStocks (Reversal ± regime), Crypto (Mom+Rev), Shadow strategies, Momentum

System Health

🧠 ML Verification Summary

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📊 Regime PredictorRF + XGBoost + LSTM ensemble

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